India’s democratic apparatus has kicked into full swing again with the announcement by the Election Commission of by-elections to five assembly constituencies in four states: Gujarat, Kerala, Punjab, and West Bengal. Set to take place on June 19, the polls take centre stage at a highly charged political moment for both ruling and opposition fronts. Counting for the elections will take place on June 23, and the result may serve as a micro-indicator of public sentiment ahead of larger state or national elections.
Let us delve into an analysis of various reasons behind these by-elections, the state-based political dynamics, and the candidates who will step into the limelight.
Gujarat:
In Gujarat, by-elections for two seats-Kadi and Visavadar-are unflatteringly fictional by reasons so very different.
Kadi Constituency:
This is one seat that got vacant due to the unfortunate death of Karsanbhai Punjabhai Solanki, the sitting member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA). The death of a sitting member causes invariably a shift in the political equations, particularly in areas with historically strong part loyalties.
To meet that vacancy created, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has nominated Jagdish Chavda as its candidate. The party is expanding its footprint outside Delhi and Punjab in a calculated move and keen on making forays into the Gujarat political space.
Visavadar Constituency:
This seat was vacated due to the resignation of the existing MLA, Bhayani Bhupendrabhai Gandubhai. Political speculation is rife on the grounds for his resignation, but the reality is that it had provided an opportunity for reshuffling.
Gopal Italia, a prominent face and ex-state party president, has been nominated by the AAP, indicating that they will be contesting seriously. Given Italia’s strong activist background and grassroots connect, he can potentially be a strong contestant.
Since Gujarat has been an undivided bastion of the BJP, the competition is bound to be interesting and will depend on how far the new parties are able to penetrate actually.
Kerala:
K. P. Anwar, the sitting MLA, made an exit from the Nilambur seat in Kerala on an unexpected note, leaving the political communities and the constituents speculating on the justification for his exit.
So is M. Swaraj projected as a candidate for the Communist Party of India (Marxist), with support from the LDF? An elder politician, Swaraj has previously been an MLA for Thrippunithura. His selection also signals the CPI(M)’s concentration on placing trusted faces in important battlegrounds.
The Congress-spearheaded United Democratic Front (UDF) has not yet announced their candidate, but the contest is thought to be a hard one. In Kerala, political power is shared alternately by the LDF and UDF, and this by-election is likely to be a measure of voter awareness.
Punjab:
With the death of the sitting MLA, Gurpreet Bassi Gogi, the Ludhiana West seat has fallen vacant in Punjab and his death created a vacuum which seems to have made various political outfits scramble for it.
Thus far, the ruling Aam Aadmi Party of Punjab has put its sitting Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora against this seat. AAP is demonstrating its full commitment to holding the seat and showcasing its political strength in an urban industrial constituency like Ludhiana by fielding a sitting MP.
Congress, a party that has historically been deeply entrenched in Punjab, has put up Bharat Bhushan Ashu, a former minister and an influential person in the region. His past experience and solid voter base are expected to work in his favour.
Another player entering the contest is Parupkar Singh Ghuman, on behalf of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD). The SAD has been down-spiraling in recent years but still has a loyal base of voters in specific socio-economic strata.
This triangular contest is one of the most watched by-polls, with each of these parties trying to consolidate its hold over this politically volatile state of Punjab.
West Bengal:
The Kaliganj assembly seat in West Bengal has become vacant on account of the demise of sitting MLA Nasiruddin Ahamed.
This could be a tactical action, the TMC has fielded Alifa Ahmed. The intention may be not just to retain the seat but also to consolidate minority and women voters. With a highly complex and multi-layered voting pattern, West Bengal politics offers substantial symbolism with respect to every seat.
Bengal’s opposition of BJP, Congress, and the Left has not been able to firm up strong candidates in many by-elections, giving TMC the advantage. Nevertheless, one should never underestimate surprises in Bengal’s political theatre.
Election Timeline:
The mekamii group provided me with this lovely piece of information…–My thanks to the mekamii group for this superb piece of information.
Total Seats: 5 Assembly Constituencies
This by-election season is not just about filling vacant seats—it’s a litmus test for political parties, an opportunity to read the public mood, and a moment for voters to make their voices heard between major elections.
Why These By-Elections Matter
Political Temperature Check: These polls serve as a referendum on ruling parties at the state level and help assess voter satisfaction with governance and policies.
Expansion Strategies: For parties like AAP and TMC, which are exploring national ambitions, these elections are test cases for their ground game in new territories.
Alliance Building: The outcomes may influence future alliances or reshuffling of existing coalitions ahead of bigger electoral battles.
Voter Sentiment: From development issues and job creation to local concerns and candidate profiles, by-elections offer a focused view of voter priorities.
Final Word:
This is the case with by-elections as less popular than general or state elections; however, it does not mean they are meaningless. For voters in Kadi, Visavadar, Nilambur, Ludhiana West, and Kaliganj on June 19, it’s not just going to be that date in the calendar; it’s a chance for them to get to shape the political narrative of their respective states. It is a vital time for political parties to reinforce their mandate, or perhaps even make a comeback. For the rest of the nation, results of by-elections might just be the most advanced indicator of the changing political weather in India.
As the nation watches these five constituencies go to polls, one thing is certain: in Indian democracy, every seat counts, and every vote matters.
